NLDS rematch: Cards vs. Pads

Yes, the Cardinals and the Padres teams are somewhat different than last year, but there's a lot about them that are the same.  So it would be fair to look at this NLDS Series between the two teams as a rematch of last year's NLDS.

The biggest difference is probably the fact that we're opening in San Diego this year instead of St. Louis.  A small disadvantage because we're a better home team and our pitchers are better at home, but we can't blame the stadium if we lose.  The main thing is to leave California with at least a 1-1 record (hopefully 2-0), so that we can come play good ball at home without a lot of extra pressure.

But let's compare the other differences between the two teams in '05 and in '06.  Everyone's been talking about how this is a "stronger" Padres team than the one who squeaked out a division title last year by just barely playing over .500 and that the Cardinals are nowhere near as good as the 2005 team that won 100 games.

Both of these may be true.  They sure have looked true at times this season.  The Padres, numbers-wise are definitely a better team this year than last.  The Cardinals have certainly struggled at times this year, something we were not accustomed to with last year's team, but don't forget - we did so without our number 2 starter for most of the season.  Not to mention injuries to Edmonds, Eckstein and of course the couple weeks that Albert was out.

But let's the Padres are better this year and that we're not, for sake of argument.  What does that mean?  Nothing, because we're still a better team than the Padres overall.

Just as last year, we lead them in just about every offense category.  More runs, hits, RBI and higher on-base, average and slugging.  And why shouldn't we?  We have guys like Eckstein and Miles who know how to get on base.  Guys like Pujols, Edmonds and Rolen who are RBI machines.  And a deep bench like Spiezio, Bennett, Wilson who can be called on to deliver when needed.

Our biggest downfall and I think it pretty much as always been, is our pitching.  It was last year when we lost to Houston in 2004 when we lost to the Red Sox and it has been most of the years I've been a Cardinal fan.  I'm too young to remember the days of Bob Gibson and some of the Cardinal GREATS as far as pitching is concerned, but I would have loved to have been a fan in those days.

Carpenter may be on his game tonight and Suppan might be as well when he pitches.  Still, I expect that if we are going to beat them, it will have to be with our bats and not from the mound.  The Pads lead us in E.R.A and of course the biggest weakness of the entire pitching staff (Carp included): giving up the long ball.  And with Hoffman on the mound, they have way more saves than we do.  But, it was offense that beat them last year, not phenomal pitching.  We didn't shut them out or even come close really to doing so.  In the 3 games that we swept, the scores were 8-5, 6-2 and 7-4.

In particular I want to talk about that first game, the 8-5 win, because not only is this a rematch between two teams, but a rematch between two pitchers: Chris Carpenter and Jake Peavvy.

Jake Peavvy was not good last year in the NLDS.  In fact, he was horrible.  He gave up eight runs and never even made it out of the 5th inning, only going 4 1/3 before he got yanked.  Carpenter, on the other hand, pitched six scoreless innings.  Now you can say all you want that Peavvy was pitching with broken ribs and I have no doubt that was probably pitching in pain.  And I admire his determination and willingless to put his body on the line to help his club.  After all, his season stats were decent.  However, they are much worse this year.

Last year he was 13-7.  This year?  Not even a .500 pitcher at 11-14 and sporting a 4.09 ERA.  He's given up more hits, more runs, more homers and has walked more.  The only thing that is the same with Jake Peavvy this year as last, is that he is a STRIKEOUT MACHINE.  And with guys on our team like Edmonds and Encarnacion that like to turn ball four into strike three, I have no doubt that he will get his share of K's.  Luckily, that is balanced by Eckstein and Pujols, two of the hardest guys in the game to strike out.  Everyone else falls somewhere in the middle.

Conversely, Carpenter is as good as he's ever been.  He's 15-8 with a 3.09 ERA, a full point better than Peavvy's.  He doesn't strike out as many, but he walks a lot less and that's key.  Carpenter might have less wins, but there's hardly much fault on his part.  His ERA is virtually the same as las year, he's given up less base hits, less walks and earned runs allowed are literally identical.  So why 6 less wins?  Well, 3 less starts for one thing.  He spent a little time on the DL this year, plus his last start was skipped so that he could be our Game 1 pitcher in the Division Series.

I know a lot of announcers have been blaming his lower record this year on his last few starts, that he's been "struggling." 

But anybody who thinks that Chris Carpenter has been slumping is terribly mistaken.  The truth is, Chris Carpenter pitches on a team whose manager does not trust the bullpen (for perfectly legitimate reasons) and therefore does not get a win unless he pitches the full nine while giving up no more than 1 or 2 runs.

Has this happened before?  Yes.  Will this happen every game?  No.  Even if he's the ace of the staff and reigning Cy Young winner?  Yes.

In Carp's last start, the Cardinals were winning 5-2 going into the 7th inning.  Carp gave up a couple of basehits and got himself into a bases loaded jam.  At this point, you have to go to your bullpen.  Carpenter is tired and had pitched a great game.  Your bullpen is there for one reason and that's to get your starters out of jams exactly like this one.  Instead he was left in to give up a couple more doubles.  He managed to strike out two guys to end the inning, but the damage was done.  He gave up four runs and suffered the loss.  Had the bullpen came in and did their job, Carpenter's line on the night would have been 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 SO and he would have been in line for the win.

The start before the last one?  It was much the same kind of situation.  He had given up a couple more runs, but kept the game close and kept the Cardinals in the game.  They were up 5-4 against Houston.  Carpenter had pitched 7 2/3 innings this time when big Lance Berkman stepped up to the plate.  There was one runner on first.  At this point, I don't take Carpenter out, but I DEFINITELY pitch around Berkman big time.  Intentional walk or the "unintentional intentional" variety if you prefer, but you certainly don't give the guy anything close to hit.  Then, if he gets in trouble, yank him and go to the 'pen.  Instead Carp's told to pitch to him and he gave up a game winning 2 run shot to Berkman.

It's enough to drive a Cardinal fan crazy. Since when is 7 2/3 IP, 4 ER and 5 SO, when you have the lead, not enough to win a game?  It should be.  But at the same time I understand why LaRussa's skeptical.  Our bullpen has been anything but lights out.  In fact, sometimes you just know that other teams are thinking, "Wait until we get into their bullpen.  Then we'll beat them."  And that's not going to cut it in the postseason.

As of late, however, some of these rookie pitchers have been doing the job.  Wainwright's up to 3 saves, I believe and is looking pretty strong.  So I think that if Carp gets himself into a jam, that LaRussa will be more likely to go to the bullpen than he has been in the past.  And I think that will loosen Carpenter up to know that he doesn't have to be perfect to win and that he doesn't have to pitch a complete game shutout to win.

But who knows, maybe he will pitch a complete game shutout tonight.  He's certainly capable.  Before the last two fiascos, he hadn't lost since August 4.  I have a feeling that these managerial decisions have cost Carpenter the Cy Young.  It's disappointing, but the most important thing is that we win this series and ultimately the World Series.

This series and every series we play for the rest of the year will come down to to pitching.  Both starting and relief.  I have confidence that Carp can hold their guys down tonight while the offense does their best to give him enough of a lead to work with.  The bullpen still scares me a little, but hopefully Wainwright continue to gets comfortable in this new role and he and the other relief guys don't let things get out of hand.

Remember before, how I said Carpenter pitched six scoreless innings last year?  The scary part of that is that we only won 8-5.  That's right.  The Pads scored 5 runs in the 7th, 8th and 9th off our bullpen guys.  Yikes.  The scaries part of this is that a couple of those runs were off of current relief guys Brad Thompson and Randy Flores.  The good news is that three of those runs were off of Jason Isringhausen (though he was only charged with one, as they were inherited runenrs) and that instead of pitching this postseason Izzy is getting the surgery he needs to once again be a great asset to the St. Louis club.

Of course San Diego's 4-man relief team gave up no runs and only two hits.  And they didn't even have Cla Meredith last year as their setup man, who posted an absolutely ridiculous 1.07 ERA this year in 50+ innings.  He's struck out 37 and only walked six.  Amazing.  The kid's good.

So the tactic should be the same.  Score a lot and score early because once you get into the 'pen, it's going to be rather hard to score.  (Though I will again point out Albert's bomb off the sidewinder last week.  But the Pads aren't stupid.  Given the same situation again, I bet he gets the free pass.)

Carpenter should be on, but let's score enough runs so he doesn't have to be perfect and can breathe a little,  not to mention St. Louis fans being able to breathe.  After all this is the playoffs.  This is supposed to be fun! 

We're on our way to Partying like It's 1982!

And it all starts here.  Game 1 of the NLDS.  It just doesn't get any better than this. :)

Tiffany