2006 prediction review

Ok, since the Cardinals didn’t play last night I figure this is a good time to finally get around to my predictions for the season, as well as a review of last year’s predictions. Last year there were predictions I nailed and many others I got very, very wrong. I have no reason to suspect this year will be any different.
First, the National League. We’ll start in the East division.

Last year my picks were: Braves, Mets, Marlins, Nationals and Phillies
End of the year standings: Mets, Phillies, Braves, Marlins and Nationals

I am a firm believer that a team is the best until someone proves otherwise. For years, analysts have been saying this is the year the Braves lose the division and I always picked them. You don’t argue with 14 straight years. But this year it finally happens. The Braves lost and I got this division very wrong. Mets ended up on top with the Phils doing much better than I anticipated. The only bright spot was that I didn’t pick the Marlins for last place, as I think most people did. And as it turned out their young, youthful team made a surprising run. My wild pick team also came out of this division, as I anticipated good things for the Mets. I didn’t pick the first place finish, but I did have them going to the playoffs.

NL Central

Last year my picks were: Cardinals, Astros, Brewers, Cubs, Pirates and Reds
End of the year standings: Cardinals, Astros, Reds, Brewers, Pirates and Cubs

Much like the NL East, this division had one team that greatly exceed my expectations in the Reds and one team that did far less than I thought in the Chicago Cubs. Of course, I am happy to be wrong about the Cubs if it means they lose. I picked the first two teams correctly in the Cardinals and the Astros, though I don’t think that’s too difficult. Those two teams have been pretty much a given the last few years. Now with many teams supremely upgraded, I think this division will be harder to call this year.

NL West

Last year my picks were: Padres, Giants, Diamondbacks, Rockies and Dodgers.
End of the year standings: Padres, Dodgers, Giants Diamondbacks and Rockies

This was the closest I was to being right in the National League. I had every team in order, with the exception of the Los Angeles Dodgers. I only needed to squeeze them in a little earlier. This is the 2nd year in the row I had the Giants higher than they actually finished. For some reason, I always think they’ll do well, but then they never tie all the pieces together. Maybe the Zito signing will finally change that?

On to the AL. Again, starting in the East.

Last year my picks were: Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Orioles and Devil Rays
End of the year standings: Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Orioles and Devil Rays

The only division that I scored 100% on. But, again….not really a big deal. Yankees finish first, Rays come in last and everyone else gets thrown in between. The only thing I’m somewhat proud of here is that I picked the Blue Jays ahead of the Sox. But, I also picked them as my Wild Card. I always like to have one “dark horse” team and they were mine for last year. I thought they had a good squad that maybe could do something special in the postseason. And then the AL Central happened. The best division in either league…..severly underestimated by me and most people I guess.

AL West

Last year my picks were: Angels, A’s, Mariners and Rangers.
End of the year standings: A’s, Angels, Rangers and Mariners.

A four team division, it’s not usually difficult which two teams will compete for first and which two teams will compete for the cellar spot. But I switched around both of them. The A’s beat out the Angels by four games advancing them to the ALDS and the Rangers beat out the Mariners by two games to avoid being the worst of the last two teams.

AL Central

Last year my picks were: Tigers, White Sox, Twins, Indians and Royals
End of the year standings: Twins, Tigers, White Sox, Indians and Royals

I get so mad when I hear people say that no one picked the Tigers. I picked the Tigers! They were another sort of sleeper team that I had in the mix. The problem was though……I was still wrong. The Tigers ended up losing the division to the Twins. I came very very close to putting Minnesota ahead of the Sox in the standings, but I thought there’s no way the World Champs will drop off this much. Well, live and learn. I also picked the wrong dark horse team. Instead of counting on the Jays to go all the way, I should have gone with Detroit. But man……that pitching staff seemingly came out of nowhere.

On to the playoffs. Let’s start at the NLDS.

Last year my picks were: Cardinals over Mets and Braves over Padres
End of the year results: Cardinals over Padres and Mets over Dodgers

NLCS
Last year my picks were:Cardinals over Braves
End of the year results: Cardinals over Mets

I picked the Cardinals to win and the Padres to lose, but in my scenario they weren’t playing each other. I had the Mets losing and to the Redbirds, but here instead of the NLCS. And for doing so bad with the National League at the beginning of the year, I did very well come playoff time. In our brackets at work, I picked the Cardinals over the Padres in 4 games and the Mets over the Dodgers in 3 and the Cardinals over the Mets in 7…..all of which happened. Never mind, I totally screwed up the AL, with the Yankees and the Twins winning.

ALDS

Last year my picks were: Blue Jays over Angels and Yankees over Tigers
End of the year results: A’s over Twins and Tigers over Yankees

ALCS
Last year my picks were: Blue Jays over Yankees
End of the year results: Tigers over A’s

I did have the Yankees and the Tigers playing each other, despite picking the Tigers for first due to have an AL team as my Wild Card and figuring the Yanks on having the bet record. They did play each other, but with the opposite result. I missed the other two teams entirely and therefore of course had neither team correct in the ALCS.

World Series
Last year my picks were: Cardinals over Blue Jays in 5
End of the year results: Cardinals over Tigers in 5

I figure this isn’t too bad. I named the World Series champion and I picked the right amound of games they would win it in. Of course, maybe that’s not fair, because I’m biased and picked my own team to go all the way. Though I paper I honestly did think they had what it took. But, if you had told me before the season they would have to do without Mulder and Izzy, I might have rethought my picks. I missed the AL team, picking my sleeper team in the Jays to go all the way. As it turned out, it was indeed a sleeper team, but a different one in Detroit.

So what does all this mean? Probably that I know squat about baseball. But also that baseball is a very, very unpredictable sport and part of what makes it great.

Total results: NLDS teams 3/4 = 75%
ALDS teams 2/4 = 50%
NLCS teams 1/2 = 50%
ALCS teams 0/2 = 0%
World Series 1/2 = 50%

Well, hopefully I can do a little better this year. We’ll find out in about 6 months. I will save this and my next post will 2007 predictions.

Definitely not a prophet,
Tiffany